Goldman Sachs (Goldman Sachs) wrote in a research report on Thursday (November 17) that China's real gross domestic product (GDP) may reach 4.5% next year, mainly due to China's gradual exit from the new crown. policy, which could lead to an increase in consumption.
China is battling coronavirus outbreaks in many major cities, including the capital, Beijing, while taking steps to try to ease the burden of its strict zero-zero policy, which has caused severe damage nearly three years after the pandemic. Financial loss and general frustration.
Goldman Sachs expects China to end its COVID-19 policies in the second half of next year, predicting that increased consumption will account for two-thirds of its full-year gross domestic product growth target. The bank expects real gross domestic product growth of 3% this year.
Net exports have driven China's economic growth for much of the pandemic period since 2020, topping $1.9 trillion. Goldman Sachs expects China's net exports to be a "moderate drag on growth" next year, given slowing global demand and continued diversification of supply chains.
Overall, Goldman Sachs noted that "the shores are far from clear" when it comes to China's long-term growth path, citing the potential for a "prolonged housing deleveraging process," supply chain issues, and a U.S. ban on advanced technology exports to China. .
In equities, Goldman Sachs said it sees "strong prospects for a recovery rally sometime in 2023" after a challenging two years.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the earnings per share of the MSCI China Index and the blue-chip Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index will grow by 8% and 13% respectively next year. These figures are higher than Goldman Sachs' forecast of 2% for the "MSCI China Index" and 11% for the "CSI 300 Index" in 2022.
Goldman Sachs said the earnings drag on the housing market could ease, while the market could get a boost from expectations of post-pandemic reopenings.
Goldman Sachs said consumer sectors, especially those sensitive to reopening, could return to profitability for the first time since 2019 after revenues fell to 2012 levels.
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