Hong Kong has eased most of its strict COVID-19-related restrictions and has begun a push to reopen the city to the world; but relocation professionals don't expect the city's biggest wave of emigration since it returned to China in 1997 to end sooner.
“Pre-COVID, we would normally have a 50/50 mix of outbound/inbound activity. In 2021 and 2022, we have a 75/25 outbound/inbound mix. This ratio is comparable to that of our sister company in Hong Kong (Asian Tigers Group) It’s the same situation,” said Kay Kutt, chief executive of Silk Relo, a local relocation services company with more than 40 years of experience in Hong Kong.
"Our team does not expect the number of migrations to decrease going into 2023," Coote said.
In September, the government ended hotel quarantines, significantly easing some of the world's strictest COVID-19 restrictions. This month, the government hosted more than 200 global financial leaders at a summit to win back their confidence in Hong Kong, Asia's top financial centre.
But what continues to drive the exodus is uncertainty, Coote said. Parents with young children have complained that kindergartens are still abruptly closed when there are cases of COVID-19; masks are still mandatory even outside. She added that some people who had decided to leave some time ago also now have visas and are ready to leave.
Andrew Collier, a Hong Kong-based economist and managing director of Orient Capital Research, agrees that the trend hasn't slowed down yet.
"Yes, I think it will continue because the security risks are increasing, not decreasing," Collier said.
He cited concerns over Beijing's National Security Law in Hong Kong in 2020. Hong Kong implemented the law in response to massive, damaging and sometimes violent “anti-extradition” (proposed extradition of economic criminals to mainland China) protests in 2019. The National Security Law imposes penalties of up to life in prison for those found guilty of secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign powers.
Collier said the law's broad language worried even those not involved in the protests. He said that one of the offenses listed - collusion with a foreign power - was "the most worrying"; because it could be applied indiscriminately and could affect foreign companies.
“There are companies that are hollowing out their operations in Hong Kong. Mainly for security reasons, they are moving people elsewhere. They find it uncomfortable to keep people working here,” Collier said.
The consul general of a European country told him that his consulate has lost 50% of its staff due to concerns about the National Security Law.
"The only upside is if business in Hong Kong can really thrive -- for example, Alibaba's dual listing, which could raise $16 billion," Collier said. "People may throw their caution behind them and return to Hong Kong."
Although recently released government figures show a net outflow of Hong Kong residents of 113,200 from mid-2021 to mid-2022; According to the Census and Statistics Department, the number of departures over the past three-and-a-half years has actually been much higher, 248,600 or 226,000 based on mid-year or year-end figures; The number of residents may be higher; as the Government does not provide total figures.
Retirees Sunny Chan and his wife plan to uproot themselves from the only place they call home and migrate to Australia, where their daughter, son-in-law and grandchildren live.
"Hong Kong has changed. It's no longer the Hong Kong I knew," Sonny Chan said. He was referring to the freedoms Hong Kongers have, which he felt had been eroded. "Hong Kong used to be a very free place. You can say whatever you want as long as you don't disturb others. Now, I don't feel safe anymore. I have to pay attention to what I write on social media and what I say to my friends What.”
Excluding mainland Chinese citizens who moved to Hong Kong to join their families, more people have left Hong Kong almost every year since 1997. However, the recent spate of departures exceeds previous periods of mass exodus, such as the 2002-2004 SARS outbreak or the 2007-2009 global financial crisis.
According to calculations based on data from the Census and Statistics Department, it is certain that before the implementation of COVID-19 and the National Security Law, Hong Kong lost only about 3% of its population of 7.48 million in 2018.
Many did not feel they were in danger of being arrested and believed that the National Security Law was primarily aimed at anti-government activists, or those actively involved in protests.
Tracy Chan, 22, was one of those who held that view. She was born in mainland China to a Hong Kong parent. She has lived in Hong Kong since she was 3 years old.
"I don't think people need to be worried ... I haven't felt anything has changed since the National Security Law was passed. It's not that because of the National Security Law, we're not going to say whatever we want. What was said, or what used to be said is not said anymore," she said. “But of course we shouldn’t speak ill of our country; Hong Kong is part of China after all.
She has no plans to leave.
“My roots are in Hong Kong,” she said. “It’s much more open than on the mainland.”
While some observers, such as Collier, attribute the population decline to immigration spurred by concerns about the National Security Act or increasingly draconian governance, authorities put the population decline this year at 1.6 percent, according to a government press release — — the biggest drop since records began in 1961 — attributed to low birth rates, border restrictions interrupting the inflow of foreign workers and people from mainland China, and some Hong Kongers opting to escape the COVID-19 outbreak overseas.
Others also Attribute the increase in emigration to the British government, which made it easier for Hong Kong British (National) Overseas passport holders to settle in the UK and eventually obtain citizenship after the Hong Kong version of the National Security Law came into effect
. The number of mainland Chinese spouses and children of Hong Kong residents arriving under China's "one-way permits" (Chinese government documents that allow mainland residents to settle permanently in Hong Kong or Macau mainly to reunite with their families) is expected to recover after disruptions due to COVID-19 Normal. Since 1997, more than 1 million such immigrants have arrived in Hong Kong with this special permit.
Many mainland students also choose to study in Hong Kong, mainly because of China's strict zero-clearing policy, Hong Kong's highly ranked universities, and relatively low university tuition.
The character of the city is slowly changing as more mainlanders arrive and Hong Kongers leave. On the streets you can hear Mandarin Chinese alongside the dominant Cantonese Coexistence of dialects. More and more mainlanders are working in the service industry and opening restaurants that serve food from other parts of China.
"They think Hong Kong is better than the mainland. When I compare overseas countries with Hong Kong, I think overseas is better," Sonny Chen said. "We're all looking for a better life."
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